By-election eve projections

Tomorrow is by-election night in 3 ridings, so I'll cut right to the chase.

1. Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette (MN):
A thoroughly safe Conservative seat; not much doubt about a Tory victory. It's a race for second place, and if the Liberals can make up that 2.7% gap with the NDP it will serve as a morale boost for Team Iggy. Conservative HOLD.

2. Winnipeg North (MN):
An equally safe seat for the NDP, but second place is safe for the Tories here. The Liberals and the Greens could conceivably fight for third if the Greens have a successful "Get Out The Vote" operation. New Democratic HOLD.

3. Vaughan (ON):
This, at least according to the media, is the race to watch tomorrow. Looking at past vote, this seat should be safe Liberal, but the Conservatives snatched popular former police chief Julian Fantino, and for all intents and purposes this is now anybody's game. The Greens and the NDP will fight for third, but once again only if the Greens have a successful GOTV. Either the Liberals or the Conservatives will place first or second, +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. However, since I have to make a projection, Liberal HOLD.