BC Party dissent, a couple provincial polls, and final by-election projections

Last week was not a good week for either major BC political party. The BC Liberals had to fire Energy Minister Bill Bennett after publicly lambasting Premier Gordon Campbell and the NDP caucus whip Katrine Conroy quit by saying that she no longer believes Carole James can lead. Ms. Conroy has a point, and generally most of BC agrees with her. While they hate the Liberals, polls also show they don't like Carole James.

Also, since Bill Bennett has always been somewhat of a loose cannon, the NDP story became much more focused on and it seemed to do its damage. The most recent Mustel poll shows the gap between the NDP and Liberals is now only 5 points: 42 over 37. That's still an NDP majority, but it's much closer than what recent polls have been showing. The Greens are at 10, the Conservatives at 9, and others garner 3% of the vote.

Onto the next provincial poll, Ipsos Reid graced us with numbers for Ontario. Dalton McGuinty's Liberals have dug themselves into a 41-32 hole against the PCs. The NDP is at a strong 20, and the Greens have 7. Interestingly the PCs hold a 7 point lead in TORONTO, so even with 41% they should form a comfortable majority.

Finally, by-elections. Winnipeg North still looks NDP, Dauphin still looks Conservative, and Vaughan...is still a tossup, but I'll go out on a limb and predict a Liberal victory. It's 50/50 at best.