New Brunswick 2010

Now for something closer to home: New Brunswick is renewing its legislature on Monday the 27th, and CRA has been kind enough to grace us with a daily tracking poll ever since the campaign began.

New Brunswick's legislature is composed of 55 members, and the main parties are the governing Liberals and the opposition PCs. The NDP lies a distant third, and the Greens almost a non-factor. A new party, the People's Alliance, has yet to break out of 0% in the CRA polls, so this will be their last mention on this blog, for now.

The election began very very close, with the two major parties exchanging the lead, and the first 4 days, the gap was never bigger than 1%. The Liberals then managed to hang on to this razor-thin lead for a few days, until on September 7, the PCs tied it up. Immediately a day after, the PCs regained the lead, and after that the wheels fell off the Liberal bus.

There was a leader's debate last night, but since people need time to evaluate leader's performances, we'll probably get a sense of how the debate influenced voting intention tomorrow or Friday. Currently, though, the figures stand at:

PC - 49%
Lib - 37%
NDP - 10%
Green - 4%

The 5-poll average is:

PC - 47%
Lib - 39%
NDP - 9%
Green - 4%

The projection for these numbers:

PC - 36 seats
Lib - 18 seats
NDP - 1 seat

Usual caveats apply: the projection can only be as good as the poll numbers plugged in, but for now, Politically Uncorrect projects a PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY.