As promised, I will now make a first attempt at projecting the results of the three by-elections later this month. The two Manitoban ridings are Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette and Winnipeg North. The lone Ontarian riding is Vaughan.
These are by-elections, and so the saying goes, anything can happen. However, that is not the case for Dauphin, which is a solid Conservative seat. Inky Mark won in 2008 with a near 45% margin. Robert Sopuck will HOLD Dauphin for the Conservatives.
Winnipeg North is similarly boring, being a very safe NDP seat. Outgoing MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis won with a margin of over 40% in 2008, so it should be no problem for NDP nominee Kevin Chief. Winnipeg will be a New Democratic HOLD.
Vaughan is where things get a bit more interesting. For all intents and purposes, Vaughan should be a safe Liberal seat. Even though the margin of victory been substantially eroded by the Conservatives since 2004, the margin was still a good 15% in 2008. However, 15% is tepid at best for by-elections, and the Conservatives have nominated an immensely popular former police chief in Julian Fantino. Liberal Tony Genco and Julian Fantino will fight to the wire for this one, and counting could go well into the night. Given the effectiveness of the Conservative GOTV (get out the vote) and Fantino's personal popularity, there could even be a slight Conservative edge. For now, this seat will be classified as a Liberal-Conservative TOSS-UP.
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