Polls generally show that the PQ has stagnated but remains ahead, and that the Liberals have lost votes to the CAQ. This seems to suggest the PQ will win, with the two questions being whether they manage a majority, and who forms the opposition. I am wary of this because CROP gives a 19% undecided rate, which makes for a lot of fluidity. While the PQ has the best shot of forming government, it does not completely rule out everybody else. The ranges may look ridiculously large but I think the results will validate the approach once again. The numbers are as follows:
Party Low Votes(%) High Low Seats High
PLQ 24 27.5 31 25 32 43
PQ 30 33.0 36 42 62 76
CAQ 24 27.9 32 18 29 45
QS 6 7.6 9 1 2 3
PVQ 1 1.4 2
ON 1 2.0 3 0 0 1
Other 0 0.6 1
PLQ 24 27.5 31 25 32 43
PQ 30 33.0 36 42 62 76
CAQ 24 27.9 32 18 29 45
QS 6 7.6 9 1 2 3
PVQ 1 1.4 2
ON 1 2.0 3 0 0 1
Other 0 0.6 1
At 33%, that the PQ
even has a chance at a majority is astounding testament to how efficient
their vote is. That being said, an even distribution is not always good
because as evidenced by their cousins the Bloc last year, being evenly
low through the province kills your seat count. Fortunately for them, they're on the high side of this fine line, and will still most likely win.
The Liberals, on the other hand, can tank and still retain a good number of seats. Their vote is heavily concentrated on the English West Island of Montreal, which means that even if their support plummets elsewhere, they'll still have a floor of 25 safe seats.
As the ranges show, things could become extremely messy tomorrow evening. I, however, will stick with the most likely option: Politically Uncorrect projects a PQ MINORITY.
